Archive for October, 2018

Put Immigrants in Democratic Districts

October 28, 2018

If President Donald Trump can’t keep the caravan from entering the country, he should try to transport the participants to congressional districts whose voters elected a Democrat to Congress. Many Democrats want to encourage immigration so we should expect voters in those districts to welcome immigrants and be willing to share local resources including jobs with immigrants.

Voters who don’t want more immigrants in their districts shouldn’t elect politicians who want to increase immigration.. Voters in higher income districts shouldn’t vote to encourage immigration unless they are willing to have new immigrants for neighbors

Why Do People Believe Climate Liars?

October 16, 2018

The  self-proclaimed  Climate Prophets who claim they can predict climate years in advance are either deliberately lying or incredibly stupid.   Weather related scientists don’t know enough about the factors that control daily weather to  make more than approximate predictions of short term weather.   How can anyone believe weather scientists can accurately predict weather decades in advance?

If you look at a Weather Bureau forecast you will notice that if it predicts the possibility of  rain the prediction will show the probability of rain as a percentage.   The probability of rain might by 20% or maybe 60%.  Meteorologists  know rain can occur under various conditions.   The percentage  figure indicates how often it will rain when the conditions are like the conditions predicted for that day

The forecast page will show daily forecasts for a week.  If you check the daily forecast you may notice that the  daily forecast for a specific day may change as the week progresses.  For example, on Saturday  you start checking on the forecast for the next Friday and the notice the forecast temperature is 80 F with a 20% chance of rain.  The next day the forecast might change to 75 F and a 30% chance of rain. On Tuesday the temperature forecast might change back to 80 F with no rain prediction.  On Thursday the Friday temperature forecast might drop to 70  F with a 40% chance of  rain.

Meteorologists’ forecasts are more accurate than they were 50 years ago and we are far less likely to have to shovel three inches of “party cloudy” off the sidewalk.  Forecasts still aren’t perfect, but computers can help process the data.   Programmers work to improve the accuracy of their models as more data is collected.

The computer programs the Climate Prophets use are of no value because they cannot be tested for accuracy against  data.that won’t exist for years.

Most people don’t understand that scientists are the original Western Civilization con artists.  Early “scientists” got money from wealthy nobles by claiming to be working on a way to convert lead into gold.  Scientists know other scientists cannot be trusted.  Science magazines  adopted a peer review process to reduce fraud.   Unfortunately. this process is no longer working.

Horace Freeland Judson in his book “The Great Betrayal”,  “sketches science as a fortress rising out of the mists, focused solely on defending and enriching itself. It might pretend to worship the Goddess Truth but inside, out of sight, it is the God Mammon who is lusted after.”

The Climate Prophets pursue checkbook science.   The person with the checkbook decides what “science” says.  The Prophets can predict anything they want because  they know by the time the future gets here people will have forgotten what the prediction was.

Millennials Should Break the Cycle of Alternating Political Parties

October 1, 2018

For the last century control of the United States has cycled between the 19th Century Democratic and Republican parties. Voters choose between the old ideas of the Democratic Party and the old ideas of the Republican Party. The two parties are mired in the same old partisan conflicts election after election. The Democrats in particular seem more interested in playing partisan political games than in dealing seriously with the nation’s problems. Republicans are increasingly following their example.

Millennials need to decide whether they want to continue the politics of their grandparents’ generation or replace the 19th Century parties with 21st Century parties.

President Donald Trump has compared Washington to a swamp. One of the most unpleasant aspects of swamps is stagnant water due to a lack of fresh water flowing into the swamp to push the stagnant water out. Washington is a swamp because of a lack of new ideas. New parties could bring new ideas to Washington and the rest of country like fresh water entering a swamp.

Replacing a political party can take a couple of elections. Thus, Congressional candidates, as well as candidates for other offices, need to remind voters that even if the third party candidate doesn’t win this year, voters will be telling the “outdated parties” that voters want new options. A strong finish will make it easier for the candidate to run again or encourage a replacement In districts in which there is no third party candidate, Millenials might get together and agree to support one of their number to run as a write in candidate.

At the national level the party out of power is easiest to replace because it has fewer entrenched incumbents. Thus, third party candidates running for Congress should say they are THE alternative to the Republicans regardless of which party the incumbent in that district belongs to.

Voters a century ago had negative attitudes toward the major parties. Voters began voting for third party candidates. The effort didn’t replace either party, but the third parties did force changes in the actions of the parties. Major changes included direct election of Senators and giving women the right to vote